# On-chain analytics and market psychology > Source: https://timechain.wiki/wiki/on-chain-analytics-and-market-psychology · TimechainWiki, the Bitcoin encyclopedia. (sub-MOC · on-chain) > On-chain analytics frameworks for Bitcoin, derived from the public ledger. The area divides into three metric clusters plus a synthesis layer. **Valuation and cost-basis metrics** ([Realized price](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/realized-price.md), [MVRV ratio](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/mvrv-ratio.md), [NUPL](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/nupl.md), [SOPR](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sopr.md)) address whether Bitcoin is over- or under-valued by anchoring price against on-chain cost basis. **Holder behavior and cohort metrics** ([HODL waves](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/hodl-waves.md), [Long-term vs short-term holder behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/long-term-vs-short-term-holder-behavior.md), [Coin Days Destroyed](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/coin-days-destroyed.md), [Whale behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/whale-behavior.md)) read the age, size, and movement of the UTXO set. **Flow and sentiment metrics** ([Exchange flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/exchange-flows.md), [Miner flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/miner-flows.md), [Sentiment indicators](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sentiment-indicators.md)) track custodial-on-chain movement and off-chain sentiment proxies. The **synthesis layer** ([Psychological phases of the market cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/psychological-phases-of-the-market-cycle.md), [Using on-chain data for macro positioning](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/using-on-chain-data-for-macro-positioning.md)) integrates the metrics into a cycle framework and bridges to the longer-horizon macro models. The area operates at intra-cycle timescales (hours to weeks-to-months), filling the gap below [Bitcoin and global liquidity](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-global-liquidity.md)'s ~10-12 week lead-lag and [The Power Law model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-power-law-model.md)'s multi-year trajectory. Contemporary anchor voices are [James Check](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/james-check.md) (Checkonchain, ex-Glassnode) and [Ryan - On-Chain Mind](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/ryan-on-chain-mind.md). --- ## How to use this sub-MOC The notes here are arranged in three ways simultaneously: 1. **By cluster** — valuation / behavior / flow + sentiment, reflecting what question each metric answers 2. **By suggested reading order** — Realized price first (definitional anchor), then derivative valuation metrics, then behavioral cohorts, then flow and sentiment, then synthesis 3. **By function** — distinguishing single-metric notes (the eleven primary metric notes) from integrative notes (the two synthesis notes) Each metric note is structured around the metric-note template variant of the standard primary-note template: Why this matters → what the metric measures → how it's calculated → what it tells you → empirical track record → limitations → counter-arguments → standard tail. The Power Law model note exemplifies the parent template; the on-chain notes adapt it for empirical-measurement framing rather than mechanistic-modeling framing. --- ## The intellectual structure On-chain analytics rests on a single foundational fact: **Bitcoin's blockchain is transparent.** Every transaction, every UTXO, every coin's last-moved price is publicly observable. This transparency means analysts can observe what market participants are actually doing in a way no other monetary asset permits. The on-chain metric tradition is the systematic exploitation of this transparency. The area operates on two analytical premises: **Premise 1 — Cost basis is observable.** The price at which each Bitcoin was last moved is recorded on-chain. Aggregated, this gives a network-level cost basis ([Realized price](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/realized-price.md)) that anchors valuation metrics. Where traditional asset analysis estimates cost basis from imperfect tax filings, Bitcoin makes it directly visible. **Premise 2 — Holder behavior leaves signatures.** Movement timing, holding duration, transaction size, exchange custody, miner spending patterns — each leaves observable traces. Aggregated across millions of UTXOs, these signatures form cohort behaviors that mark cycle phases. The metrics in this area are operationalizations of these two premises. Cluster 1 metrics use cost basis to answer valuation questions; Cluster 2 metrics use behavioral signatures to answer "what are holders doing?"; Cluster 3 metrics extend the framework to cross-boundary flows and off-chain sentiment proxies. The synthesis notes integrate the metric layer with the cycle-phase framework Check has developed and with the longer-horizon macro frameworks ([Bitcoin and global liquidity](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-global-liquidity.md), [Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-the-ism-pmi-cycle.md)) the price-models area provides. This area is **empirical-behavioral in voice**, distinct from the theoretical-argumentative voice of Economics and Culture-philosophy, the trajectory-modeling voice of the price-models area, and the operational voice of Self-custody. Each note presents a metric, what it measures, what it does and does not signal, empirical track record across cycles, and the steelmanned limitations and counter-arguments. --- ## Valuation and cost-basis metrics These metrics anchor current price against on-chain cost basis. They answer the question: "is Bitcoin expensive or cheap relative to where holders bought it?" - [Realized price](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/realized-price.md) — total realized cap ÷ circulating supply. The aggregate on-chain cost basis; the definitional anchor for the cluster. Historically acts as a structural support level during deep corrections. - [MVRV ratio](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/mvrv-ratio.md) — market cap ÷ realized cap (equivalently, price ÷ realized price). The flagship cycle-positioning indicator. High MVRV marks overheating; low MVRV marks capitulation. The MVRV Z-score normalizes across cycles. - [NUPL](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/nupl.md) — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap. A close mathematical cousin of MVRV expressed as a fraction. Calibrated against the psychological-phase framework (denial → hope → optimism → belief → euphoria → greed; and downside mirrors). - [SOPR](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sopr.md) — Spent Output Profit Ratio: realized price of spent outputs ÷ acquired price. The realized-side analog to MVRV's unrealized framing. SOPR > 1 means coins are being spent at profit; SOPR < 1 means at loss. The aSOPR (adjusted, excluding intraday churn) and LTH/STH-SOPR cohort variants are the most operationally useful refinements. The four notes form a connected set. Realized price is the foundation; MVRV and NUPL are unrealized-side valuation metrics built on it; SOPR is the realized-side analog. Reading the cluster gives a coherent picture of where holders' aggregate cost basis sits relative to current price and how they are behaving with respect to that cost basis. --- ## Holder behavior and cohort metrics These metrics read the age, size, and movement of the UTXO set to characterize what cohorts of holders are doing. - [HODL waves](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/hodl-waves.md) — supply-by-age distribution; the iconic stacked-area chart showing the fraction of supply that has been held for each age band. Reveals accumulation and distribution phases by cohort age. - [Long-term vs short-term holder behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/long-term-vs-short-term-holder-behavior.md) — the 155-day cohort framework Check has been most influential in developing. LTH supply growth marks accumulation; LTH distribution marks late-cycle. - [Coin Days Destroyed](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/coin-days-destroyed.md) — supply-weighted velocity: the sum of coin-days reset by transactions. Old-coin movement registers as large CDD spikes; particularly informative when long-dormant supply suddenly moves. - [Whale behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/whale-behavior.md) — large-holder positioning; entity-size cohort dynamics; institutional vs retail behavioral signatures. The four notes operate at different aggregation levels: HODL waves at the supply-by-age distribution level; LTH/STH at the binary-cohort threshold level; CDD at the velocity-weighted level; Whale behavior at the entity-size level. Together they characterize the behavioral state of the network at any given time. --- ## Flow and sentiment metrics These metrics extend the on-chain framework to flows across boundaries that matter (exchanges, mining-entity wallets) and to off-chain sentiment proxies. - [Exchange flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/exchange-flows.md) — net Bitcoin moving onto vs off of exchange-custody wallets. Net inflow typically signals distribution intent; net outflow typically signals accumulation. Custodial-ETF flows complicate the picture from 2024 onward. - [Miner flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/miner-flows.md) — miner-wallet outflows; mining-entity behavior; the spent-by-miner cohort. Miner capitulation has been a recurring late-bear signal historically. - [Sentiment indicators](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sentiment-indicators.md) — off-chain sentiment proxies (Fear & Greed Index, funding rates, futures basis, social-sentiment scores). Strictly not on-chain but conventionally bundled with on-chain analysis as the behavioral-context layer. The cluster is the most heterogeneous of the three. Exchange and miner flows are on-chain in the strict sense; sentiment indicators are off-chain proxies. They are grouped because they all answer "what does the broader market context look like?" rather than "what is the network state?" --- ## Synthesis notes These notes integrate the metric layer into operational frameworks. - [Psychological phases of the market cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/psychological-phases-of-the-market-cycle.md) — Check's cycle-phase framework integrating multiple metrics into a coherent narrative: capitulation/accumulation → recovery/disbelief → belief/optimism → euphoria/distribution → anxiety/denial. Each phase has specific on-chain signatures. - [Using on-chain data for macro positioning](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/using-on-chain-data-for-macro-positioning.md) — the operational bridge to longer-horizon frameworks. How intra-cycle on-chain signals integrate with [Bitcoin and global liquidity](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-global-liquidity.md) and [Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-the-ism-pmi-cycle.md) for macro-aware positioning. How on-chain extremes interact with the [The Power Law model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-power-law-model.md) corridor. --- ## Analytical voices anchoring this area The area has two primary contemporary anchors plus several adjacent voices cited from this section. **Primary contemporary anchors** - [James Check](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/james-check.md) — Australian on-chain analyst; ex-Glassnode lead of Week On-Chain; now operates Checkonchain. The most influential systematic on-chain framework developer in contemporary Bitcoin analytics. His MVRV, SOPR, realized-price, cohort, and psychological-phase frameworks underlie nearly every primary note in this section. - [Ryan - On-Chain Mind](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/ryan-on-chain-mind.md) — accessible video-format on-chain analyst; runs the On-Chain Mind YouTube channel, Substack, and onchainmind.io platform. Complementary to Check: custom indicators, visual-first presentation, growing-influence positioning. **Additional home-area voice** - [Dylan LeClair](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/dylan-leclair.md) — home-area on-chain analyst working the macro-financial / on-chain-metric intersection (rose through Bitcoin Magazine; now senior advisor at corporate-treasury holder Metaplanet). A cycle-positioning and macro-context voice rather than a systematic-framework originator — narrower in framework contribution than Check and Ryan, but an on-chain-home analyst, not a merely-adjacent citation. **Adjacent voices cited from this area** - [Giovanni Santostasi](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/giovanni-santostasi.md) — Power Law modeler; cited where on-chain cycle positioning interacts with the longer-horizon trajectory framework. - [Stephen Perrenod](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/stephen-perrenod.md) — Power Law co-developer; cited for the log-periodic cycle structure on-chain metrics inform. - [sminston_with](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sminston-with.md) — macro-correlation operationalizer; cited for the bridge from on-chain to global liquidity / ISM PMI. - [Lyn Alden](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/lyn-alden.md) — macro-empirical thinker; cited for the fiscal-dominance context that interacts with on-chain extremes. - [Plan B](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/plan-b.md) — engaged critically; the on-chain analytical tradition has generally moved on from S2F-as-price-model in favor of the cost-basis-and-cohort framework codified here. --- ## Key connections to other areas On-chain analytics sits at the intersection of several other areas. The connections are dense. **To Long-term price models and cycles** - The on-chain section operates at intra-cycle timescales; the price-models section operates at multi-year trajectory and multi-month macro-cycle timescales. The two are complementary, not competing. - [The Power Law model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-power-law-model.md) provides the longer-horizon trajectory the on-chain metrics oscillate around. The Power Law corridor + MVRV/NUPL extremes together give a richer cycle-positioning framework than either alone. - [Four-year halving cycles](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/four-year-halving-cycles.md) are the cycle structure on-chain metrics characterize empirically; [Log-periodic cycles and the Perrenod-Santostasi wave model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/log-periodic-cycles-and-the-perrenod-santostasi-wave-model.md) is the alternative cyclical framework that on-chain phase analysis can inform or contest. - [Bitcoin and global liquidity](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-global-liquidity.md) and [Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-the-ism-pmi-cycle.md) are macro frameworks at the quarterly-to-multi-month frequency that bridge to the on-chain layer through the [Using on-chain data for macro positioning](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/using-on-chain-data-for-macro-positioning.md) synthesis note. - [Diminishing returns thesis](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/diminishing-returns-thesis.md) — on-chain cohort dynamics inform the cycle-over-cycle attenuation framework. **To Economics and monetary theory** - The on-chain layer empirically operationalizes [Monetization S-curve](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/monetization-s-curve.md) and [Bitcoin as emergent money](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-as-emergent-money.md) — cohort accumulation by long-term holders is the on-chain signature of monetization in progress. - [Network effects and Metcalfe's Law](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/network-effects-and-metcalfe-s-law.md) is the network-economics foundation that on-chain active-address and entity-cohort metrics measure. **To Investing and markets** - [Portfolio approaches to Bitcoin](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/portfolio-approaches-to-bitcoin.md) *(home: investing)* — practical allocation. On-chain metrics inform cycle-aware partial-profit-taking and entry-timing within a long-horizon allocation framework. - DCA, lump-sum, and cycle-aware allocation decisions all interact with on-chain extreme readings. **To Self-custody and sovereignty** - The shift from exchange-custodied to self-custodied Bitcoin is one of the structural signals exchange-flow analysis captures. Self-custody adoption is an on-chain-visible cohort phenomenon. - ETF and institutional-custody growth from 2024 onward complicates the historic exchange-flow signal — a known limitation of the framework. **To Mining** - [The halving - Mechanism](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-halving-mechanism.md) is the supply-schedule event miner-flow analysis interacts with; miner capitulation cycles are partially halving-driven. - Hashrate dynamics relate to the broader network-state context on-chain metrics sit within. --- ## What this area doesn't cover To set expectations for what isn't here: - **Long-term price prediction.** Multi-year trajectory modeling is the price-models area's domain. On-chain metrics inform cycle positioning, not where Bitcoin is going on a 10-year horizon. - **Pure technical analysis.** Chart-pattern frameworks (Elliott Wave, head-and-shoulders, Wyckoff) are not treated as serious analytical frameworks in this section. The on-chain area focuses on empirical-behavioral metrics grounded in observable blockchain data. - **Altcoin on-chain analysis.** Altcoin on-chain metrics, BTC-dominance signals as trading inputs, and comparative on-chain analysis across cryptocurrencies are out of scope. - **Specific data-provider methodology.** Glassnode, Coin Metrics, and Checkonchain each have specific definitional and methodological choices that affect metric values at the margin. The notes here present the conceptual frameworks; specific data-provider implementations are referenced but not exhaustively documented. - **Trading-frequency signals.** Hourly and daily timeframes are out of scope. The shortest timescale this area engages is multi-day to weekly, with the most informative signals operating at multi-week to multi-month timescales. - **Theoretical economic framework.** The on-chain area is empirical-behavioral; theoretical foundations live in Economics. On-chain metrics are tools, not theory. The boundary with the price-models area is the most porous; cycle-positioning work straddles both. --- ## Open questions in this area - **How does the ETF and custodial-institutional shift affect on-chain metrics from 2024 onward?** Exchange flows, cohort definitions, and HODL-wave dynamics all shift when a large fraction of Bitcoin sits in custodial-ETF wallets. The frameworks need adaptation for the post-ETF regime. - **Are cohort thresholds (155 days for LTH/STH) still calibrated correctly?** The threshold emerged from earlier cycle dynamics; later cycles may warrant recalibration. - **What is the appropriate epistemic weight to give on-chain extremes vs macro signals when they diverge?** When MVRV says cheap and global liquidity says tight, which signal dominates? The synthesis note is the place to engage this; the answer is not obviously settled. - **How do on-chain metrics evolve as Bitcoin's monetization matures?** The cycle-phase framework rests on patterns from the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles. If [Diminishing returns thesis](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/diminishing-returns-thesis.md) holds, future cycles will produce attenuated metric extremes, and the calibration of "overheating" and "capitulation" thresholds may shift. - **Can on-chain metrics produce reliable cycle-top signals?** Historical track record is mixed. Some cycle tops have been called well; others have produced premature signals. The honest answer is that on-chain metrics provide probability-weighted information, not certainty. - **What are the structural limits of on-chain analysis?** Custodial-exchange and ETF holdings obscure individual-holder behavior. Self-custody growth changes what's visible. The framework's reach is bounded by what the blockchain actually shows. - **How should the framework engage post-quantum and protocol-change scenarios?** A long-horizon question, but one that would invalidate the historical-data calibration if it occurs. --- ## Canonical sources across the area **Primary contemporary sources** - Checkonchain platform (checkonchain.com) — James Check's independent on-chain platform; the primary contemporary reference for systematic on-chain frameworks. See [James Check](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/james-check.md). - Glassnode Week On-Chain archive — the historical newsletter Check led; foundational source for the 2020-2023 development of contemporary on-chain frameworks. - On-Chain Mind YouTube, Substack, and platform (onchainmind.io) — Ryan's accessible video-format on-chain analysis; complementary contemporary source. See [Ryan - On-Chain Mind](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/ryan-on-chain-mind.md). **Data providers** - Glassnode — the most-cited Bitcoin on-chain data platform; comprehensive metric infrastructure - Coin Metrics — research-quality on-chain data; rigorous methodological documentation - Checkonchain — Glassnode-derived data presented through Check's analytical framework **Adjacent academic and research literature** - Various BitMEX Research pieces on on-chain dynamics - Various Coin Metrics State of the Network reports - Academic blockchain-analysis literature (more limited than the practitioner literature) **Adjacent canonical sources from other areas** - *Broken Money* (Lyn Alden) — macro framework intersecting on-chain cycle positioning. See [Broken Money - Lyn Alden](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/broken-money-lyn-alden.md). - *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin* (Vijay Boyapati) — monetization-phase framework on-chain cohort dynamics empirically operationalize. --- ## Related notes - _MOC-Map-Bitcoin — parent MOC - [Long-term price models and cycles](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/long-term-price-models-and-cycles.md) — adjacent sub-MOC; trajectory and macro-cycle frameworks the on-chain layer sits within - [Economics and monetary theory](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/economics-and-monetary-theory.md) — adjacent sub-MOC; theoretical foundations - [Investing and markets](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/investing-and-markets.md) — adjacent sub-MOC for allocation implications - [The Power Law model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-power-law-model.md) — longer-horizon trajectory framework - [Stock-to-flow model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/stock-to-flow-model.md) — engaged critically; supply-side framework distinct from cost-basis framework - [Four-year halving cycles](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/four-year-halving-cycles.md) — cycle structure on-chain metrics characterize empirically - [Log-periodic cycles and the Perrenod-Santostasi wave model](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/log-periodic-cycles-and-the-perrenod-santostasi-wave-model.md) — alternative cyclical framework - [Bitcoin and global liquidity](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-global-liquidity.md) — macro framework on-chain metrics bridge to - [Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-and-the-ism-pmi-cycle.md) — macro framework on-chain metrics bridge to - [Diminishing returns thesis](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/diminishing-returns-thesis.md) — cycle-over-cycle attenuation framework - [Monetization S-curve](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/monetization-s-curve.md) — adoption framework on-chain cohort dynamics empirically operationalize - [Bitcoin as emergent money](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/bitcoin-as-emergent-money.md) — emergence framework consistent with on-chain monetization signatures - [Network effects and Metcalfe's Law](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/network-effects-and-metcalfe-s-law.md) — network-economics foundation - [The halving - Mechanism](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/the-halving-mechanism.md) — supply-schedule mechanism miner-flow analysis interacts with - [Portfolio approaches to Bitcoin](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/portfolio-approaches-to-bitcoin.md) — practical destination - [Realized price](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/realized-price.md) — Cluster 1 anchor - [MVRV ratio](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/mvrv-ratio.md) — Cluster 1 valuation metric - [NUPL](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/nupl.md) — Cluster 1 valuation metric - [SOPR](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sopr.md) — Cluster 1 valuation metric - [HODL waves](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/hodl-waves.md) — Cluster 2 cohort metric - [Long-term vs short-term holder behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/long-term-vs-short-term-holder-behavior.md) — Cluster 2 cohort metric - [Coin Days Destroyed](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/coin-days-destroyed.md) — Cluster 2 cohort metric - [Whale behavior](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/whale-behavior.md) — Cluster 2 cohort metric - [Exchange flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/exchange-flows.md) — Cluster 3 flow metric - [Miner flows](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/miner-flows.md) — Cluster 3 flow metric - [Sentiment indicators](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sentiment-indicators.md) — Cluster 3 sentiment metric - [Psychological phases of the market cycle](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/psychological-phases-of-the-market-cycle.md) — synthesis note - [Using on-chain data for macro positioning](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/using-on-chain-data-for-macro-positioning.md) — synthesis note - [James Check](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/james-check.md) — primary contemporary anchor - [Ryan - On-Chain Mind](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/ryan-on-chain-mind.md) — adjacent contemporary anchor - [Dylan LeClair](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/dylan-leclair.md) — adjacent on-chain voice - [Giovanni Santostasi](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/giovanni-santostasi.md) — Power Law modeler; adjacent - [Stephen Perrenod](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/stephen-perrenod.md) — Power Law co-developer; adjacent - [sminston_with](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/sminston-with.md) — macro-correlation operationalizer; adjacent - [Lyn Alden](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/lyn-alden.md) — macro-empirical thinker; adjacent - [Plan B](https://timechain.wiki/wiki/plan-b.md) — S2F (engaged critically)